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By my last count at week’s end, there have been – somewhere – 694 major government interventions designed to stimulate growth or cushion downturn. By my equally unofficial tally, governments have now paid out the equivalent of ten Citibanks, or if you prefer, seven Deutsche Banks (about $20 trillion).  And behold, there are everywhere signs that economic life continues, maybe even returns to a thin kind of normality.

Underneath, the recurring impression I am left with is one of fragility. The minute (literally the very same week) tax refund payments start to slow in the US, retail sales fall dramatically. The same tight dependence on official cause and private effect can be seen in the high streets of London, of Berlin, of Seoul and Singapore. Nearly everywhere except mainland China, where official intervention is more organic, more sustained, essentially semi-permanent. Everywhere else, government spending is like some giant butcher’s thumb on the scale – lift it, and the measure of economic activity drops sharply.

There are exceptions to this. European manufacturers have so radically cut their inventories, shuttered plants and laid off workers that the next several months are certain to see inventory-led growth. Similar indications exist here.

Likewise the recent Asian Development Bank annual meeting in Bali was crowded with good cheer and optimistic civil servants, as a relatively quick end to Asia’s downturn was visible. There is real confidence throughout South East Asia that regional patterns of trade may reassert themselves – albeit in a patchy way – even without a strong US upswing.

The exceptions are remarkable in their exceptionalism. The broader texture of the world economy is not so comforting. Now comes the critical, dangerous moment when some economic vitality must naturally form and grow underneath the shower of official funds. The paradox is simple. Money tossed on the sidewalk is useless, if left there. Someone must put it to use. Production, absent reviving consumption, is worse than dangerous, with its threat of self-reinforcing deflation. We are now at a supremely dangerous but inevitable moment in this hoped-for recovery. Hold your breath.

Against this backdrop, let me offer five indicators that any interested party may watch to ascertain our world’s progress – or lack thereof. These measures all address critical sinews that must re-knit themselves to bone for healing and strengthening to acquire positive, virtuous, self-reinforcing strength. Most are not widely known, but no less important for all that.

·          In Asia – the level of Taiwanese exports.  Taiwan is a canary in a coal mine when it comes to falling international trade. The economy is wide open, heavily dependent on export revenues, and heavily dependent on low margin consumer electronics. More than New Zealand or Germany’s Swabian mittelstand, or northern Italy’s small producers, the Taiwanese live or die by international demand. Exports stopped sliding in March; showed a month over month increase in April, but are softening again now in May. Much of Asia will painfully and gradually adapt to a domestic demand-led model of economic growth. Taiwan will always depend on external demand to sustain expansion.

·         Worldwide – the progress of the Baltic Dry Freight Index. A relatively pure measure of traded goods, the Baltic is better than almost any other indicator of quickening or slowing activity. Charter ships are moored empty just outside every major port in the world, awaiting work. The Baltic tells us whether more are loading at the margin, and after a precipitous fall through the winter, the index is now ticking back up fitfully. The rate of change matters here. Faster is necessary, and faster is not yet clearly in the numbers.

·         In the US – the point spread between the ten year treasury bond and the thirty year mortgages. We don’t unblock our housing mess until a substantial portion of all those bad mortgages are refinanced at lower, more affordable rates. Mortgage rates at 5% mean death. Mortgage rates at 4% mean life. It really is that simple. The Federal Reserve has been buying treasuries and mortgages very heavily for the past two months trying to accomplish two things – hold both rates down, and keep the spread between these rates tight. The market is fighting back, and just now, beginning to win that fight. This is not good. Rates are too high now (3.15% on the ten year treasury, 4.85% on the thirty year mortgages), and they need to come down again soon.

·         In the currency markets, watch the cross rate between the Euro and the Japanese Yen. For years, the yen has been the currency of lowest interest rates and easiest debt worldwide. The Euro, by contrast, has offered rich returns in both currency and rate arbitrage. That cross rate has swung to and fro for months between lows of 116 Yen to the Euro, at moments of greatest fear, and 135 yen to the Euro at moments of euphoria. This relationship is the best single thermometer of the world’s willingness to invest in risky assets. Bottoming is never a point; always a process. A steady build in Euro/Yen from the present 129/130 would be welcome, but is – in my opinion – unlikely.

·         Last, back to the US. Credit card default rates are a central concern. In the bull years, the indefatigable US consumer was 15% of world demand. In the new world that awaits us, it will be much less – but still the most important single source of demand for many years to come. Perhaps 10%, perhaps a bit less. China eventually becomes the center of world attention, but not yet and not soon. So credit cards in the US matter, and they are intimately linked with unemployment (still rising), and sales patterns, and confidence. Default rates are getting worse, but the key question is whether that worsening slows from here or accelerates. No one really knows. I talk to the company executives on a regular basis, and I know they’re holding their collective breath in hope and fear.

This time, this year it will not be the Ides of March nor April as the cruelest month which matter. It may well be the dog days of August that tell us whether we all turn that much-looked for corner in this much-longed for recovery.

Hold your breath. Cross fingers. Touch iron.