Berlusconi and the legend of bunga bunga

The headlines in the Italian media this week are all about Northern League leader Umberto Bossi, laying down the conditions for the political survival of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi after the heavy losses the two men’s parties suffered in recent local elections across the country. 

Thrilling as it may sound, this is nothing new in a country like Italy — currently trapped in the lamest of economic recoveries and with no deep reforms on the horizon. In Italy all parties involved in national government have to up the ante at every opportunity to win back popular approval. Even when the economic recovery is fairly good (consider Germany) national ruling parties can pay a price. But recent recent upheavals in Italy sometimes seem to be in a class of their own.

The talk about Berlusconi, both at home and abroad, is that this is the end for him . Is it? Probably. He’s almost 75 and the recent electoral losses – even Milan has turned his back on him –  followed by the thrashing he received in last week’s referendums on nuclear energy, private management of water pipelines and prime ministerial immunity have seen him lose the one factor in this whole situation that has always saved him: public support.

If all you read are liberal Italian newspapers or the international press, you would have little understanding of the reasons for this. The slippery slope Berlusconism is on, has nothing to do with the so-called “bunga bunga effect” as many have suggested, or the conflict of interest concerning his family-owned media empire. Far from it. The majority of Italians have turned their backs on Berlusconi for one main reason: he broke his word. In 1994 he promised a conservative “revolution”: smaller government; a more efficient bureaucracy; and above all, fairer taxation. On the back of such promises he won general elections in 1994, in 2001 and 2008.

He sold himself as the champion of small businesses — the beating heart of Italy’s economy — and the middle classes, offering the dream of a new era in the relationship between the individual and the State. But he failed to deliver. Nothing really changed. Why? One reason is that Berlusconi has always been considered, even when he was just a businessman, as an outsider among the national elites. He was seen as — and still is — first generation nouveau riche. The old Northern bourgeoisie, the high society of Italy, the ones in control of newspapers, banks, and big corporations – never accepted him as an equal. In Italian politics, securing electoral support, is in a certain sense the easy part.

But then comes the hard part, which is convincing the establishment to follow you and to respond to you. It never happened in Berlusconi’s case and it seriously compromised his ability to push his agenda as prime minister. And this is before we even discuss the issue of bureaucratic resistance. The Italian bureaucracy is one of the last great bastions of union power. Central and local government employees, teachers and professors, doctors and hospital nurses, the whole union bandwagon worked against his conservative agenda from the start, with opposition parties pulling the strings from behind.

Also bear in mind the tactics of the opposition, which to a significant degree has used the judiciary as a political weapon to stymie Berlusconi’s agenda since 1992. Consider the case of former prosecutor Antonio Di Pietro, the “moraliser” of  Italian politics back at beginning of the 90’s. Now he is a rising political star with a party with up to eight percent of electoral support. At the European level he also had problems. Regarded by many of his European counterparts as something of an outcast, Berlusconi has always been seen as a temporary political phenomenon, even though in his seventeen years in office Berlusconi has far outlived many of his detractors.

What accounts for this longevity? Ability? Luck? Maybe both. Certainly persistence and determination. The same characteristics he had when he was a young boy on the streets of Milan in the aftermath of WWII. Fine. But, pulling this all together, can Berlusconi be relieved of responsibility for not having kept his promises? Of course not. In life – like in politics – the golden rule is “don’t make promises you cannot keep”. Bottom line, he failed to deliver and voters have sent him their first and last warning. Will he listen to it? And will his political agenda survive his passing, if indeed that is what is about to happen? Hard to tell. But let’s hope it will. It’s a good one, and Italy needs it.

This article is cross-posted on The Commentator, the british partner of L’Occidentale, by agreement