Marini is walking a narrow path

After Romano Prodi lost a vote of
confidence in the Senate on January 24^th, President Giorgio
Napolitano held consultations with political leaders from all parties. He then
gave Franco Marini, president of the Senate, the task to explore the
possibility of an interim government aimed at reforming the electoral law.
However, the opposition demands new elections straight away and could count on
a large majority if Italians voted today.

The collapse of the Prodi government was
caused by the withdrawal of the centrist Udeur party led by former justice
minister Clemente Mastella. At a press conference on January 21^st ,
Mastella declared that he had not received enough solidarity from members of
the government while facing his personal judicial problems and would therefore
leave the coalition. Without the support of the three Udeur senators, Prodi
lost the vote of confidence in the upper house of parliament. This compelled
him to hand in his resignation to President Napolitano.

Napolitano is unhappy with the idea of new
elections as he thinks that the current electoral law produces unstable
majorities. Under the present system, the coalition with the largest number of
votes nationwide receives a bonus of additional seats in the Chamber of
Deputies. In the Senate the bonus is attributed on a regional basis. Thus, it
can happen that a coalition has a large majority in one house but not in the
other. Some observers believe that this situation renders the country
“ungovernable”. However, it is not clear whether a transitional government
could agree on a better system.

Napolitano’s decision to put Marini in
charge of finding a consensus for an interim government left the speaker of the
Senate with a very difficult task. Marini’s search for a solution to the crisis
is complicated by the fact that there exists no consensus on what kind of
electoral law should be applied instead. A number of  smaller parties fear that their influence may
dwindle if a percentage barrier for entering parliament is imposed. At the same
time, there is reason to suspect that several members of the centre-left prefer
a transitional government simply because they fear new elections right now.
While some see genuine problems with the current electoral law, for others it
is no more than an excuse to prolong the life of this parliament for as long as
possible.

The leader of the Democratic Party, Walter
Veltroni, has repeatedly insisted on a new electoral law before holding
elections. For Veltroni, this is not merely a technicality. He is expected to
be the centre-left’s candidate for the next elections and knows that in the
current climate of opinion his party would probably lose. Consequently, it is
in the interest of his party to delay the date of the elections.

In the meantime, the downfall of the
centre-left coalition was celebrated by opposition leader Silvio Berlusconi who
had demanded new elections for several months. While his centre-right movement
“House of Liberties” experienced some tensions in the autumn, he seems to have
restored a functioning relationship with his two main allies Gianfranco Fini
(Alleanza Nazionale) and Umberto Bossi (Lega Nord), who also call for new
elections. Even Pier Ferdinando Casini (UDC), whose position was ambiguous for
some time, has now joined their demand to go back to the ballot box without
forming an interim government beforehand. Judging by current opinion polls, it
is likely that new elections will produce substantial centre-right majorities
in both houses of parliament and thus make the country “governable” under the
present electoral law.