Casini leaves the centre-right but struggles to find a new alliance

While Pier
Ferdinando Casini (UDC) has now definitely left the centre-right alliance,
there is as yet no political pole to which he might turn instead. His UDC, the
so-called “White Rose” (Rosa Bianca) and the UDEUR party all claim to represent
the political centre but have so far not been able to agree on a joint list or
program. The situation of the Christian Democrats is further complicated by the
fact that Giuliano Ferrara, a prominent Italian journalist, has declared his
intention to enter the election campaign. He could take a substantial number of
votes from the UDC because of his determined fight against abortion.

The news
that Casini and Berlusconi would go separate ways in this election campaign
came as no surprise since the relationship between the two had been strained
for a long time. But the impact that the break-up will have on the political
scenery is difficult to predict. While the PDL of Berlusconi and Fini is likely
to win the elections by a large margin, it is not clear whether it can reach an
absolute majority and govern on its own. With Veltroni’s Democratic Party trailing
in the polls and the forces on the left being divided, a lot could depend on
how the centrist parties will do in the elections and how they intend to align
themselves afterwards.

But the
intentions and priorities of the centrists remain mysterious. The Rosa Bianca
was founded in early February by former UDC members Bruno Tabacci and Mario
Baccini. Its president is former trade union leader Savino Pezzotta. The aim of
the party is to strengthen the centre and overcome the bipolar structure of
Italian politics which over the last couple of years was characterized by the
contrast between centre-right and centre-left alliances.

Another
party claiming to represent the heritage of the Christian Democrats is of
course UDEUR, led by former justice minister Clemente Mastella. UDEUR brought
down the Prodi government through a vote of no confidence in the Senate but the
party was not welcomed on the centre-right and Mastella’s personal judicial
problems as well as his erratic political U-turns make him an unattractive
partner in any coalition.

On the face
of it, the different “successor parties” to the old Christian Democrats should
be able to find enough common ground to merge into one party for the elections
but tactical considerations as well as personal ambitions and animosities may
prevent that. Thus, Casini’s departure from the centre-right may leave his party
in an awkward position. If it cannot reach an agreement with the other centrist
forces its importance in the political system would be diminished.

The
appearance of Giuliano Ferrara’s anti-abortion list could render the situation
still more unpredictable. Ferrara
is director of the daily newspaper Il Foglio and a campaigner for a worldwide
moratorium on abortion. His declared intention to run as a candidate for the
ministry of health may persuade many devout Catholics who share his concern
about abortion to vote for his list rather than UDC, UDEUR or Rosa Bianca.

What
emerges from all this is a paradox in which the centrist forces may hold the
numerical key to majority-making in Italy’s imperfect bipolar political
structure but are weakened by a lack of internal coherence and clarity of
purpose. If Ferrara’s
list does indeed manage to take votes from UDC, UDEUR or Rosa Bianca, it may
encourage a process which many regard as necessary: the consolidation of a
proper bipolar structure without a volatile centre which determines the fate of
governments.